By Lauren Sedemeester
27/02/2025
On 19 September 2023, Azerbaijan initiated a military offensive in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, swiftly capturing the remaining territory. In a shocking turn of events, ethnic Armenian forces surrendered the following day—an unexpected move—leaving the region effectively dismantled and bringing this decades-old conflict to an abrupt end. This rapid development restored Azerbaijan’s control over the region.
In the immediate aftermath, a mass exodus occurred, with over 100,000 ethnic Armenians—constituting more than 99% of Nagorno-Karabakh’s population—fleeing to Armenia within a week, emptying the region of its Armenian inhabitants.
Where is Nagorno-Karabakh?
Nagorno-Karabakh is a mountainous, forested, landlocked region in the South Caucasus, sandwiched between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It is rich in minerals such as gold, copper, zinc, molybdenum, limestone, and gypsum, along with natural gas reserves. However, ongoing geopolitical instability has hindered their development.
Historic Context of the Conflict
Soviet Era and Autonomy
The region has deep historical roots, with tensions escalating during the late Soviet period. Nagorno-Karabakh, known to Armenians as Artsakh, was established as an autonomous oblast (province) within the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic in 1923, despite its majority-Armenian population.
In 1988, as the Soviet Union began to collapse, the region’s ethnic Armenians demanded to join Armenia—a move strongly opposed by both the Azerbaijan S.S.R. and the Soviet government—leading to prolonged disputes and intermittent warfare.
Following the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, Armenia and Azerbaijan declared independence, and the disputes over Nagorno-Karabakh escalated into full-scale war. By 1993, Armenia controlled Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding areas, resulting in significant casualties and displacement.
Ceasefire and Continued Tensions
A 1994 ceasefire left Armenian forces in control of Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent districts. However, in the absence of a peaceful resolution, the period between 1994 and 2020 saw several deadly skirmishes and the displacement of over a million people. Notably the four-day escalation in April 2016 resulted in hundreds of casualties.
Renewed Clashes and the 2020 War
Hopes for renewed negotiations arose with Armenia’s new government in 2019, but diplomacy failed, sparking clashes in July 2020. On 27 September 2020, intense fighting resumed, lasting until a Russian-mediated ceasefire on 10 November. The agreement, reinforced by Russian peacekeepers, allowed Azerbaijan to reclaim significant portions of the territory and mandated their deployment for five years.
The ceasefire guaranteed access to Armenia via the Lachin Corridor—the only road connecting the region with Armenia. However, Russia’s ability to protect Nagorno-Karabakh waned due to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. From December 2022, the corridor was blocked for nine months, cutting off the region’s food supply, while Russia did little to intervene.
The 2023 Attack and the Mass Exodus
On 19 September 2023, Azerbaijan, backed by Türkiye, Israel and other countries, launched a new 24-hour offensive, strengthening its control over Nagorno-Karabakh, overwhelming the outgunned Armenian forces, and trapping local Armenians as the Lachin Corridor remained blocked.
Despite Azerbaijan’s claims that it would protect the rights of the ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, many feared ethnic cleansing and negotiated their evacuation. By October, over 100,000 ethnic Armenians had fled to Armenia. The self-declared Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh announced its dissolution, effective 1 January 2024.
Armenia’s Struggle with the Refugee Crisis
Since the mass exodus, the Armenian government, with support from international organisations, has registered refugees, helped them find shelter, granted them eligibility for Armenian citizenship, and provided monthly financial aid. Rather than placing refugees in camps, efforts have focused on integrating them into communities.
However, Armenia is struggling with the refugee crisis. Despite a growing economy, the sudden influx has put significant strain on the small country and its three-million-strong population. Even with tax breaks for employers, job opportunities remain insufficient. The state budget is under pressure due to the financial aid for displaced persons. Notably, around one in 30 people in Armenia is now a Nagorno-Karabakh refugee—equivalent to the population of Gyumri, the country’s second largest city.
Recognising Armenia’s burden, the European Union allocated over €12 million in humanitarian aid in 2023, and a further €5.5 million in 2024 to support the most vulnerable affected by the crisis.
Challenges Faced by Nagorno-Karabakh Refugees
Employment and Social Services
As of January 2025, only a tenth of Nagorno-Karabakh exiles have received unemployment or disability pensions, with many applications rejected due to a lack of fixed residency in Armenia. Hundreds remain without stable housing, and aid offices continue to see a steady stream of refugees seeking financial support.
Education and Mental Health
The crisis extends beyond housing and employment to education and mental health. The integration of nearly 17,000 displaced students into Armenia’s educational system has strained existing resources. Teachers are working extended hours to accommodate them, yet challenges persist, including declining enrolment and attendance, as well as reduced learning outcomes. Many of these children require mental health support to cope with the trauma of the conflict.
Legal Status and Citizenship
The Armenian government’s decision in October 2023 to classify refugees under “temporary protection” has led to confusion and concern among the displaced population. This classification has stripped around 150,000 people of Armenian citizenship, rendering their previous passport valid only as travel documents, restricting access to visas and official services. Bureaucratic delays have further complicated the process of obtaining necessary documents. As a result, many refugees hesitate to apply for new Armenian passports, fearing a loss of rights and inadequate government communication.
Cultural and Religious Heritage Under Threat
Armenia has a deep-rooted Christian history, having been the first country in the world to adopt Christianity as its state religion in AD 301. Nagorno-Karabakh has been a centre of Armenia’s Christian heritage for centuries, housing numerous medieval churches, monasteries, khachkars (cross-stones), and a population that was more than 90% Christian. The region’s predominantly Armenian and Christian identity has been a focal point in its historical conflicts with Azerbaijan.
Throughout the conflicts, especially following the 2023 offensive, there have been credible reports of deliberate destruction of Armenian cultural and religious sites by Azerbaijani forces. This includes the shelling of the Holy Saviour Cathedral (Ghazanchetsots) and the demolition of other significant monuments. Such actions have raised international concerns about the preservation of cultural heritage in the region.
It has also been noted that the departure of Armenian Christians has significantly reduced Azerbaijan’s Christian population, from 248,000 (2.4%) to under 148,000 (1,43%), making it easier for authorities to monitor Christian activities.
Azerbaijan’s ‘Great Return Project’ and Its Impact
In the aftermath of its military recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan has initiated the ‘Great Return Project’, aiming to repopulate the region and restore it to its pre-1994 state. This initiative has involved replacing Armenian city names with Azerbaijani ones, removing Christian iconography, demolishing national monuments, and desecrating cemeteries. These efforts are widely perceived as an attempt to erase traces of Armenian heritage and presence in the region.
God’s Heart for the Exiled
As swiftly as Nagorno-Karabakh fell, so too has the world moved on. International attention may have waned, but God still sees and hears their plight. The Karabakh refugees, like the Israelites in exile, have lost their homeland, and while some long to return, all long for justice.
Isaiah 49:25 (ESV) offers comfort and hope, assuring that God promises to rescue His people, fight for them, and ensure that justice: “For thus says the Lord: ‘Even the captives of the mighty shall be taken, and the prey of the tyrant be rescued, for I will contend with those who contend with you, and I will save your children.’”
This verse offers a promise of deliverance, protection, and the eventual restoration of what was lost. This might only happen on a spiritual level for the people of Nagorno-Karabakh when Christ returns and ushers in His Kingdom, but they can rest assured that He will bring judgement in the end where judgement is due.
Psalm 37:28 (ESV) further reassures: “For the Lord loves justice and will not forsake His faithful ones. They will be protected forever, but the offspring of the wicked will be cut off.” This is a promise of hope—that justice will prevail, because God sees the wrongs done to His people and will not let them go unaddressed. He will remain faithful to those who have remained faithful to Him, bringing protection and restoration to those who have suffered.
While the Christians of Nagorno-Karabakh can hold on to these promises in God’s Word, it is also important for the global Body of Christ to show them that God has not forgotten them. With so much devastation in the world and so many refugees as a result, the Body of Christ has plenty of people and causes to support, but we should not forget about our brothers and sisters in Armenia. Jesus’s words in Matthew 25:40 is also true for them, “Truly I tell you, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers and sisters of mine, you did for me.” May we, therefore, stand with the Church in Armenia and support the refugees and show them that God has not forgotten them.
Please join us in prayer for the following:
- Ask for God’s protection, provision, and healing for the over 100,000 displaced native Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh.
- Pray for lasting peace and justice between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
- Pray for wisdom and strength for the Armenian government as it works to support the influx of refugees.
- Pray for healing and support for displaced children, and for resources to help them integrate into Armenia’s education system.
- Pray that the world remembers the refugees, especially those displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh. May they receive continued support, and may peace, justice, and dignity be restored to all affected.
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