By Katelin van Zyl
On Thursday, 26 October – Ethiopia’s annual National Army Day – Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali confirmed in a speech that Ethiopia will not use force against neighbouring nations in the Horn of Africa to attain direct access to a Red Sea port. He had earlier in the month said that peace in the region required “balanced mutual sharing” between landlocked Ethiopia and its neighbours, raising concern that failure to secure access to the ocean (one of the world’s busiest shipping routes) could lead to conflict. Since Eritrea became independent from Ethiopia in 1993, Ethiopia has relied on the port of Djibouti for its imports and exports. Eritrea, Somalia, and Djibouti, which each rejected his appeals around negotiating direct access, condemned Mr Abiy for making threatening statements. These diplomatic tensions added to worries of escalating domestic instability reported in eight of Ethiopia’s regions, but especially in the Amhara region – Ethiopia’s third largest region home to the second largest ethnicity (approximately 28%) and an important region due to its historical, religious, cultural, political, and economic significance.
Since April this year, the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) has been clashing with non-state FANO and Amharic ethnic militias in Amhara. The escalating violence was triggered by opposition to the federal government’s decision to dissolve regional special forces (which include paramilitary groups from each of Ethiopia’s ethnic regions) and integrate them into the police and national army. There was widespread concern in the region that this decision would leave Amhara vulnerable to attacks from other regions, especially in light of Tigrayan rebels not being fully disarmed after the Pretoria Peace Agreement was signed on 2 November last year. Many in the Amhara region, which was an ally to the ENDF during the two-year conflict in Tigray, also felt betrayed by that agreement, growing suspicious of both the peace accord and the federal government. Like many ethnic groups, Amharas accuse the regional and federal governments of being dominated by ethnic Oromos. In addition to demanding the withdrawal of the ENDF from the region, militias also demand that certain areas in Tigray with large Amhara populations be officially brought under the Amhara regional government. Sporadic clashes ensued, which escalated after the assassination of the Amhara Prosperity Party’s leader at the end of April. In early August, the federal government declared a six-month state of emergency in Amhara and some cities saw a de-escalation, but new conflicts have been reported in different cities and towns throughout the region.
If the instability in Amhara persists, it could draw other countries into the fighting. The Eritrean government is believed to be supporting Amhara’s local militias, although this is not officially confirmed by Eritrea. It is assumed that the alliance between Eritrea and Amhara would continue considering that Eritrea trained approximately 30,000 militiamen during the Tigray conflict. Eritrea is allied with Egypt, while the United Arab Emirates supports the Ethiopian government. As trust erodes both within Ethiopia and with its neighbours, the global Church can pray for wisdom for Prime Minister Abiy to mend these relations and lead the country and region towards peace. In 2019, he received the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts toward attaining peace and international cooperation, especially for his role in ending his country’s long-running border dispute with Eritrea. Although he is not a perfect leader, the Church can pray that he would continue peace-making, not only for the sake of the region’s stability and security, but because he has said he is a Pentecostal Christian, and thus should represent Christlikeness in his conduct and decision-making. Mr Abiy also needs wisdom to lead the country out of its economic woes. There is a high likelihood of Ethiopia defaulting on its debt, and many Ethiopians are struggling with rising commodity prices. Together with the coronavirus pandemic and ongoing drought, the conflict in Tigray led to devastating economic and financial consequences, which would be worsened by further instability and conflict.
An Ethiopian contact shared that division along ethnic lines is the main cause (although other factors include religious aspects) of the instability in the country. Ethiopia has more than 80 ethnicities, but the three main ethnic groups competing for power are the Oromos (Prime Minister Abiy’s ethnicity), Amharas and Tigrayans. The constitution did not sufficiently address these dynamics, and Mr Abiy’s government appears reluctant to address the constitution issue. Thus, it remains that a lasting solution should include a constitutional change that will be practical, just, and lead to sustainable peace. An INcontext contact familiar with events in Ethiopia said that prayer is needed to overcome the increased animosity and bridge the divide widened by the conflict. There is a need for understanding among all ethnicities, but especially the Oromos and Amharas, which together constitute around 80% of the population, since their unity is vital for stability and peace in Ethiopia. Believers have an opportunity to set an example in pursuing reconciliation and unity, especially with other believers of other ethnicities who share their faith in Christ. May they heed the instruction in Ephesians 4:3 to “Make every effort to keep the unity of the Spirit through the bond of peace.”
Please pray with us for the following:
- For the complete implementation of the Pretoria Peace Agreement, for peace talks in Amhara, and de-escalating tensions between the Ethiopian government and its neighbours
- For moves towards addressing Ethiopia’s ethnic issues, in a way that is practical, sustainable, just, and does not lead to more tension and instability in the future
- For believers in Ethiopia to display Christ in pursuing peace, unity, healing, and reconciliation
